Unexpected decision to stop Astana talks surprised guarantor countries

Kazakhstan's proposal to end hosting the International Meeting on Syria in the Astana Format has surprised the guarantor countries, according to delegates from Russia. The final round of negotiations, held on June 20-21 in Astana, marked a significant milestone in the ongoing efforts to achieve lasting peace in Syria.

Representatives from the three nations gathered in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, for their 20th meeting this week. The purpose of the meeting was to address various matters, including the current situation in the region, a plan to restore diplomatic relations between Turkey and Syria, the occurrence of Israeli attacks, and several other related topics.

Deputy Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan, Kanat Tumysh, unexpectedly called for the conclusion of trilateral talks, stating that their goal had been achieved. He said, 'I'm glad to bring the 20th international meeting in the framework of the Astana Process on Syria to a close. Over the past years, the Republic of Kazakhstan has made efforts to support the friendly people of the Syrian nation and the process of intra-Syrian settlement.'

Since January 2017, Kazakhstan has hosted 18 out of 20 international meetings on Syria in the Astana format, with the mediation of the guarantor countries Iran, Russia, and Turkey, and the support of the United Nations.

“Negotiations in Kazakhstan led to the establishment of the de-escalation zones and of the bloodshed among conflicting parties and decrease in scale of human casualties. Which in turn come as an achievement of initial goals of the Astana process on Syria. Generally, Astana process has demonstrated Kazakhstan's peace brokering potential over last six years.

In this difficult and faithful period for the people of Syria, we're not with deep satisfaction the significant contribution of all participants in the Astana process. We are convinced with the consolidation that with the consolidation of their goodwill and peacekeeping efforts, it will lead to the achievement of the stated lofty goal” said Mr Tumysh.

Deputy Foreign Minister Mr. Tumysh pointed out the drastic change in the current situation in Syria and expressed the willingness of Arab states to restore diplomatic relations with Damascus, highlighting Syria's return to the League of Arab States.

“We know the fruitful consultations in the framework of the 20s international meeting conducted between the Deputy Foreign Ministers of Iran, Russia and Turkey aimed at hosting negotiations on drafting the road map for normalizing relations between Syria and Turkey. In this context, the gradual and of regional isolation of Syria could be confidently asserted as a successful fulfillment of the honourable mission of the Astana process. Taking into account the remarkable achievements, including the return of Syria to the Arab family, we decided to officially declare the 20s international meeting to be considered as a final round of meetings in the framework of the Astana process on Syria”, said Mr Tumysh.

Alexander Lavrentyev, the envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Syria and head of Moscow's delegation at the talks, expressed his surprise at Kazakhstan's decision. He stated that the move by the Kazakh foreign ministry was unexpected, as he spoke to reporters following the conclusion of the talks. Regarding future talks, Lavrentyev mentioned that no decision has been made regarding the venue. However, he mentioned the possibility of holding them in Moscow, Ankara, Tehran, or even Damascus in the latter half of the year.

Ali Asghar Khaji, the Iranian Foreign Minister's Senior Advisor for Special Political Affairs, stated that several ideas were proposed by Iran, Russia, Syria, and Turkey regarding the normalization of ties between Damascus and Ankara. He also acknowledged the progress made in stabilizing Syria's foreign policy and its return to the Arab League.

“We held the second meeting at the level of the deputy Foreign ministers of Syria, Turkiye, Iran and Russia in order to normalize relations between Syria and Turkey. There have been a number of good developments on the international arena taking place on Syria. And today, if we compare stability and security in Syria in in with the past, there is much relative stable. So there there have been some developments taking place in serious foreign policy. It has been restoring diplomatic relations with a lot of Arab countries and this country and in Syria has returned to the Arab League”, said Mr Ali Asghar Khaji.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan commented on the announcement of the Astana format as the final stage of the negotiation process on its territory. According to them, the initial goals of creating de-escalation zones, stopping bloodshed between conflicting sides, and preventing a large-scale humanitarian crisis have been achieved. They also mentioned the desire to resume negotiations in Astana if there is a collective request from the participants.

“At present, its initial goals of creating de-escalation zones, stopping bloodshed between the conflicting sides and preventing a large-scale humanitarian crisis have been achieved. Today, the political situation in the Middle East region is changing dramatically. There is a desire to restore relations between the Arab states and Damascus. Syria's membership in the Arab League has been renewed. Our brother Republic of Turkiye intends to normalize relations with friendly Syria”, reads the commentary.

In this regard, MFA Kazakhstan states, the gradual withdrawal of Syria from isolation in the region can be regarded with firm confidence as a successful result of the efforts of the so-called Astana Process on Syria.

“At the same time, if the participants of the International Meetings on Syria in the Astana format express a collective request to continue negotiations in Astana, Kazakhstan is ready to consider the possibility of resuming the process as a gesture of goodwill, taking into account the progress of negotiations at other platforms and the situation in Syria in general”, says Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

The Astana Process, initiated in 2017 by Kazakhstan and Russia, Iran, and Turkey as guarantor countries, has been instrumental in facilitating dialogue and negotiations between various Syrian factions. Over the years, it has served as a vital platform for diplomatic engagement, focusing on finding political solutions to the protracted conflict.

The representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Turkey, as the guarantor countries of the Astana Format, in the Joint Statement reaffirmed their unwavering commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of the Syrian Arab Republic as well as to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter. Moreover, they highlighted that these principles should be universally respected and complied with.

The guarantor countries expressed their determination to cooperate in combating terrorism in all its forms and manifestations, while opposing separatist agendas aimed at undermining Syria's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the national security of neighboring countries. They condemned the activities of terrorist groups and their affiliates operating under various names across Syria, including attacks on civilian facilities and internally displaced persons (IDP) camps resulting in the loss of innocent lives. They emphasized the need for full implementation of all arrangements concerning northern Syria.

“Discussed the situation in the north-east of the Syrian Arab Republic and agreed that constant security and stability in this region can only be achieved on the basis of preserving the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. Rejected all attempts to create new realities on the ground, including illegitimate self-rule initiatives under the pretext of combating terrorism. Reaffirmed their determination to confront separatist agendas that aim to undermine the unity of Syria and threaten the national security of neighbouring countries, including through cross-border attacks and infiltration also from the west of the Euphrates;

Reiterated their opposition to the illegal seizure and transfer of oil revenues that should belong to Syria. Condemned the actions of countries supporting terrorist entities, including illegitimate self-rule initiatives in the north-east of Syria;

Expressed grave concern with all forms of oppression by the separatist groups against civilians in east of Euphrates, including through suppression of peaceful demonstrations, forced conscription and discriminatory practices in the field of education as well as restrictions placed on political activities, journalists, right to assembly and freedom of movement” reads the joint statement.

The representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation, and the Republic of Turkey condemned the ongoing Israeli military attacks in Syria, particularly those targeting civilian objects. They considered such actions as violations of international law, international humanitarian law, Syria's sovereignty, and territorial integrity, which destabilize the region and exacerbate tensions. They reiterated the importance of adhering to internationally recognized legal decisions, including relevant UN resolutions that reject the occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights, notably UN Security Council Resolutions 242 and 497. They declared that all Israeli decisions and actions in this regard are null and void and have no legal effect.

According to the Joint Statement, the guarantor countries “expressed serious concern over the humanitarian situation in Syria further aggravated by the consequences of the devastating earthquake on 6 February 2023. Denounced all unilateral sanctions that violate international law, international humanitarian law and the UN Charter, including all selective measures and exemptions with respect to specific areas in Syria that could lead the country to collapse by facilitating the separatist agenda”.

The successful conclusion of the final Astana Process meeting marks a significant achievement in the pursuit of peace in Syria. The years of negotiations, dialogue, and compromise have laid the groundwork for a political solution and a future free from the ravages of war.

International stakeholders expressed optimism, hailing the Astana Process as a pivotal diplomatic initiative that has paved the way for broader international consensus on Syria. The focus now shifts to implementing the agreed-upon measures, with sustained support from the international community.

The Syrian peace process is a series of initiatives and plans aimed at resolving the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011. It involves various international actors, including the Arab League, the UN Special Envoy on Syria, Russia, and Western powers. The primary negotiating parties are typically representatives of the Syrian Ba'athist government and the Syrian opposition. However, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria is often excluded at the insistence of Turkey. Radical Salafist forces and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have not engaged in any peaceful resolution efforts.

The peace process began in late 2011 with two initiatives launched by the Arab League, but they did not achieve significant success. Russia proposed talks in Moscow between the Syrian government and the opposition in January 2012 and November 2013. In March to May 2012, there were hopes for a United Nations/Arab League plan coordinated by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

The Geneva II Conference on Syria took place in January and February 2014, organized by then-UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi. In October 2015, talks in Vienna involving officials from the US, EU, Russia, China, and various regional actors, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Iran, commenced. Peace talks with rebel leadership continued in Astana, Kazakhstan, in 2017. Kazakhstan offered Astana as a neutral venue and a suitable location for peace negotiations on Syria.

In May, the foreign ministers of Turkey and Syria held talks in Moscow and reached an agreement to establish a "roadmap" aimed at improving their strained relations. This development occurred shortly after Syria was readmitted to the Arab League. The meeting between the two foreign ministers marked the most significant contact between Turkey and Syria since the beginning of the Syrian uprising, which eventually escalated into a complex war involving multiple foreign powers, spanning over a decade.

The Syrian conflict has resulted in immense human suffering, with nearly 500,000 lives lost and approximately half of the country's pre-war population of 23 million people displaced.

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