Televised debates, political party activity, and discussions about the election on social media could increase public interest in voting for deputies of the Qurultai. The progress of the electoral campaign was discussed by participants of an expert platform in Almaty, El.kz reports citing the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies.
At the Saylau-2026: Nature of the Political Campaign expert platform, specialists presented data on the audience for televised debates, potential voter turnout, trends in electoral preferences, and the use of AI in political communication.
Political analyst and publisher Bakytzhan Bukhарbay said that approximately 560,000 people watched the debates broadcast by Qazaqstan TV.
The broadcast on Channel 7 attracted an audience of 1.45 mln viewers. At the same time, the demographic profiles of the audiences on the two television platforms differed significantly.
On Qazaqstan, young people under the age of 24 accounted for the largest share of viewers. On the other platform, the largest audience group consisted of people over the age of 55.
Differences were also recorded in terms of gender composition. Men accounted for the majority of viewers on Qazaqstan, while the second broadcast attracted mainly female viewers.
“We can see that TV debates are capable of reaching very different groups of voters. Moreover, this is no longer limited to traditional television viewing. Political discussion continues online and across social media, where audiences comment on the candidates’ performances, assess the parties’ arguments, and effectively become direct participants in the public debate,” Bakytzhan Bukhарbay noted.
Interest in the debates continued after the television broadcasts ended. Hundreds of publications analysing the performances of party representatives appeared in the media, on online platforms, and across social media.
Viewers posted approximately 65,000 comments on YouTube. Users also discussed the debates on TikTok and Facebook, comparing the positions of participants and assessing their responses.
According to Bukhарbay, the significance of such broadcasts extends beyond audience figures. During a live discussion, voters can assess how effectively party representatives respond to difficult questions, and address criticism.
Director of the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies Aigul Sadvokassova believes that the level of activity during the current campaign could affect voter turnout. She recalled that turnout in the 2023 parliamentary elections stood at approximately 54.14%.
Current opinion polls indicate that between 70.3% and 75.6% of respondents say they intend to vote. However, the expert urged caution against treating stated intention to vote as a definitive forecast.
“There are grounds to expect that turnout in the upcoming elections may exceed the level recorded during the 2023 parliamentary campaign. We are currently seeing more active campaigning by political parties, an intensive information campaign, and a high level of stated willingness among citizens to vote,” Sadvokassova said.
According to her, final voter turnout will depend on whether political parties are able to sustain public attention until election day. Participation is also influenced by public trust in political institutions, access to information, the competitiveness of the campaign, and the perceived ability of citizens to influence decision-making.
The expert also highlighted a decline in the proportion of citizens who have not yet decided which political party to support. In a study conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, this figure stood at 22.6%.
In a subsequent survey conducted by the Institute of Public Policy, the share of undecided respondents was estimated at 5.3%. Since the surveys were conducted by different organisations, their results should be viewed as an indicator of the overall trend, Sadvokassova stressed.
“The decline in the share of undecided voters is one of the most pronounced trends of the current campaign. At the same time, polling results should primarily be regarded as an indicator of ongoing changes rather than an accurate forecast of the election outcome,” the expert noted.
High levels of online activity by a political party do not necessarily translate into support at polling stations. There remains a gap between viewing political content and deciding to vote for a particular organisation, with the latter depending on public trust and the clarity of the proposed policy solutions.
The use of generative artificial intelligence was another important topic of discussion. Public figure Yerlan Smailov noted that AI tools are already being used to prepare texts, speeches, images, audio recordings, and video materials.
“Artificial intelligence is no longer merely a technological innovation. It is becoming part of the government agenda, public discourse, and political competition itself. This is already evident at the level of election programmes,” Smailov said.
According to the expert, the accessibility of such tools reduces the cost of producing political content. At the same time, it facilitates the creation of deepfakes, fabricated statements, and other materials capable of misleading voters.
Smailov recalled the emergence online of fake videos featuring the faces of politicians and well-known Kazakhstani public figures. Some of these publications were subsequently refuted by government authorities and by individuals whose images had been used without their consent.
Accountability for misleading or inaccurate content remains a separate challenge. When AI tools are used, it can be difficult to determine who should be held responsible for the resulting material: the person who generated the prompt, the original publisher, the user who disseminated it, or the operator of the technology platform.
“The current campaign may become one of the first in which artificial intelligence manifests itself simultaneously in two capacities: as a subject of political commitments and as a technology of political competition. Therefore, the question is no longer whether AI will be used in elections, but rather what rules governing its use should be established,” Yerlan Smailov emphasised.
The expert believes that such risks cannot be addressed through legislation alone. As generative technologies become more widespread, citizens will need to exercise greater caution in verifying sources, cross-checking information, and learning to identify artificially generated content.
Elections for deputies of the Qurultai will be held on 23 August. Voting will be conducted on the basis of party lists, and political associations will need to meet the established electoral threshold in order to secure representation.
