Nearly 20.5 mln people: how Kazakhstan’s demographics is changing
EL.KZ Информационно-познавательный портал
Addressing the 5th session of Ulttyq Qurultay, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized noted steady economic growth, stronger financial reserves, and positive changes in society. In this context, particular attention was drawn to population size and life expectancy indicators, which are globally regarded as indicators of the well-being of society, El.kz reports.
“Thanks to our joint efforts, we have achieved economic growth: the country’s GDP has exceeded 300 bln dollars, with per capita income reaching 15,000 dollars. This is a record figure for the entire Central Asian region. Foreign currency assets of the National Fund increased by $5 billion. The National Fund’s reserves stand at $65 bln, including over $35 bln in gold and foreign currency reserves. The share of SMEs in the economy approached 40 percent. The population reached nearly 20.5 million people. Average life expectancy reaches 75.4 years”, Kazakh leader emphasised.
Life expectancy as a global indicator
Average life expectancy remains one of the key indicators of a country’s level of development. In the early 1950s, global life expectancy stood at 46.9 years. By 2019, it had increased to 72.8 years - an increase of almost 27 years.
Growth remains steady for decades amid of technology, and living standards. However, in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, global average life expectancy fell to 72 years, and in 2021 declined to 71 years.
Gender differences and long-term trends
Historically, women worldwide live longer than men. In 1950, the gap was 3.8 years, increasing to 5.4 years by 2020–2021. In 2019, average life expectancy for men reached 70.2 years, while for women it stood at 75.4 years. Following the pandemic-related decline in 2020–2021, life expectancy indicators fell, but the gender gap persisted.
In 2022, average global life expectancy was estimated at 71.7 years, rising to 73.4 years in 2023. By 2050, it may reach 77.2 years, and by 2100, exceed 82 years.
Kazakhstan’s population in real time
Population growth remains another important marker of development. According to data from the international platform Worldometer, based on UN estimates, as of January 19, 2026, Kazakhstan is ranked 65th.
How the population has changed
Historical data show uneven dynamics. In the 1950s, Kazakhstan’s population was under 8 million. By 1980, it exceeded 15 million, and by 1990 reached 17.1 million.
The 1990s marked a period of population decline amid economic hardship and migration processes. By 2000, the population had fallen to approximately 15.5 million.
Demographic growth in the 21st century
Since the early 2000s, the country has returned to steady growth. In 2010, the population stood at 16.8 million; by 2015, it exceeded 18 million. By 2020, it approached 19.5 million, and in 2022, the 20 million mark was surpassed.
Growth has continued in subsequent years, although the pace has gradually slowed. In 2025, annual population growth was estimated at 1.22 percent, compared to 1.47 percent two years earlier.
Urban population and major centers
Urbanization remains a steady trend. The country’s largest city is Almaty, with a population of around 1.98 million. Shymkent ranks second, with approximately 1.2 million residents. Other major cities include Astana, Karaganda, Aktobe, Taraz, and Kyzylorda.
Long-term projections
According to Worldometer forecasts, Kazakhstan’s population could exceed 22 million by 2030 and reach 24.2 million by 2040. By mid-century, it is expected to grow to 26.5 million, with the share of urban residents approaching 60 percent.
Long-term demographic models suggest that if current trends persist, the country’s population could reach 33 million by 2100, accompanied by further changes in age structure and the social system.
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