National Bank reported improvement of business climate in Kazakhstan: business activity index at 51.6 points

Business activity index, compiled on the basis of surveys of the National Bank, at the end of November this year increased and amounted to 51.6 points, El.kz cites primeminister.kz.

 This was reported at the Government session by the Chairman of the National Bank of Kazakhstan Timur Suleimenov.

The index remains in the positive zone for the tenth month in a row. The index for services was 51.5, for production - 53.1 points. The index of business climate in November increased and remained positive. Current and future business conditions are viewed favourably.

"Annual inflation at the end of November was 8.4 per cent.Disinflation of food products has a restraining effect on inflation.However, its acceleration to 5.4% was recorded in the last month. The growth of prices for non-food products is slowing down to a lesser extent - 8%. The highest growth continues to demonstrate inflation of paid services - 13.3% - against the background of the ongoing programme ‘Tariff in exchange for investment’ and the rise in the cost of a number of market services,"Timur Suleimenov said.

As for the monthly inflation, in November it remained at the level of the previous month and amounted to 0.9%, slightly higher than the historical average.

The domestic economy remains under pro-inflationary pressure on the background of stable domestic demand, continued fiscal stimulus, rising inflation expectations, as well as the growth of regulated prices.

In terms of risks from the external environment, there is an acceleration of inflation in a major trading partner - Russia, and rising prices on world food markets. Under these conditions, the National Bank raised the base rate to 15.25% on 29 November this year.

Against the backdrop of increased volatility in financial and energy markets, the National Bank will closely monitor the need for additional tightening of monetary policy to return inflation to the trajectory of sustainable slowdown and achieve the medium-term target of 5%.

"In November this year, amid a combination of factors, the tenge exchange rate weakened by 5% to 512.52 tenge per dollar. Against the background of global strengthening of the dollar, changes in the cost of commodities and aggravation of the geopolitical situation in the world, negative dynamics of emerging market currencies were observed everywhere. Also, amid the introduction of new sanctions against the financial sector of Russia accelerated weakening of the Russian ruble - the currency of one of the key trading partners of the country," Chairman of the National Bank said.

At the same time, the domestic foreign exchange market was characterised by increased demand for foreign currency from economic agents and a decrease in supply, including against the background of overcoming the psychological level of the tenge exchange rate.

Against the background of deterioration of a number of fundamental factors to prevent destabilising fluctuations, smoothing excessive volatility of the exchange rate of tenge and for the purposes of ensuring the supply of foreign currency in the period from 15 to 28 November, the National Bank conducted currency interventions.

"Further dynamics of the tenge will depend on the dynamics of the current account of the balance of payments, expectations of market participants, the situation on world markets and changes in the geopolitical situation. The National Bank will continue to adhere to the flexible exchange rate regime, which excludes the accumulation of imbalances," the head of the NB emphasised.

Timur Suleimenov also added that the deficit of the current account of the balance of payments decreased from - $6.7bn in 9 months of 2023 to about zero level of - $0.3bn in 9 months of 2024 due to the improvement of the trade balance.

Gross international reserves stood at $105bn at end-November this year, up 9.5% since the beginning of the year. Gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank increased by 23% to $44.2bn since the beginning of this year. Assets of the National Fund increased by 1.3% since the beginning of this year to $60.8bn. The amount of revenues to the Fund since the beginning of the year amounted to 3.7 trillion tenge, and the volume of transfers to the national budget - 5.3 trillion tenge. Investment income of the National Fund for the first 11 months of this year was 9.5%, or $5.7bn.

"Pension assets of the UNPF continue to demonstrate positive dynamics. Since the beginning of the year, pension assets increased by 22.7% to 21.8 trillion tenge.Investment income since the beginning of the year totalled 2.8 trillion tenge. Pension contributions increased by 19% to 2.3 trln tenge against 2023. Early withdrawals totalled 495.6 billion tenge," Timur Suleimenov summarised.

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