In a recent interview with Qatar's Al Jazeera network, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made headlines by reaffirming his country’s ambition to diversify away from hydrocarbons and embrace a digital, greener future. Speaking on the sidelines of the Astana International Forum, Tokayev addressed Kazakhstan's long-term vision, challenges in energy transition, and the broader international context in which Kazakhstan is increasingly being recognized not as a peripheral actor, but as a decisive regional stakeholder – a «middle power».
The term «middle power» refers to a sovereign state that is neither a superpower nor a marginal player, but rather occupies a strategic middle ground. These countries typically feature stable institutions, moderate military and economic strength, and a proactive foreign policy focused on multilateral cooperation, conflict mediation, and regional engagement.
Unlike great powers that seek to shape the global order through dominance or unilateralism, middle powers often operate through consensus-building, coalition diplomacy, and norm entrepreneurship. Their strength lies not in coercion, but in credibility and commitment to international cooperation.
The concept emerged in the aftermath of World War II, when countries like Canada, Australia, and the Netherlands played vital roles in shaping the newly-formed United Nations. Though lacking the military might of the United States or the Soviet Union, these nations were recognized for their diplomatic reliability, economic contributions, and peacekeeping efforts.
During the Cold War, middle powers were mainly associated with Western alliances, especially NATO. However, in the post-Cold War era, the definition has expanded to include countries from the Global South and emerging economies that have developed independent foreign policy profiles.
In the 21st century, the concept has evolved. Middle powers today are nations that serve as bridges in a fragmented global order, leveraging multilateral diplomacy, niche economic strengths, and strategic geography to punch above their weight. Countries like South Korea, Türkiye, Indonesia, and, increasingly, Kazakhstan exemplify this modern interpretation.
Contemporary middle powers are increasingly defined not just by their material capacities, but by behavioral patterns and foreign policy strategies. Key characteristics include multilateral activism, issue-specific leadership, strategic autonomy, bridge-building diplomacy. For example, active participation in the UN, regional organizations, and international legal frameworks.Advocacy in areas like climate change, human rights, nuclear non-proliferation, or digital governance. A foreign policy that balances relations with major powers while maintaining national sovereignty. Facilitating dialogue between rival blocs or acting as neutral mediators in global or regional conflicts.
The Strategic Role of Middle Powers
Middle powers play a unique and increasingly vital role in contemporary geopolitics. They are neither dominant enough to shape global rules unilaterally nor so marginal as to be disregarded. Instead, they often function as stabilizers in international affairs, facilitating dialogue, mediating conflicts, and sustaining multilateral frameworks.
Unlike great powers that tend to polarize global politics, middle powers are often viewed as more neutral, constructive actors. They possess the credibility to engage with multiple sides and the diplomatic capacity to drive consensus. Their influence derives not from coercion but from cooperation, niche leadership, and normative diplomacy. This makes them essential in tackling transnational challenges like climate change, regional security, and digital governance.
Research institutions such as the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) – Germany’s leading foreign policy think tank – have emphasized the growing significance of middle powers in their publication «Middle Powers – Key Actors in International Politics.» According to SWP, middle powers are uniquely positioned to promote international cooperation at a time when the global order is under pressure from nationalism, protectionism, and major power rivalry.
Academics such as Carsten Holbraad and Andrew Cooper have argued that middle powers act as «system managers» – states that work within the existing international order to improve its efficiency, legitimacy, and resilience. They do not seek to rewrite global rules, but rather to sustain and adapt them to emerging challenges.
In 2024, Germany’s Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik(SWP), one of Europe’s most respected foreign and security policy institutes, published an expert study titled «Middle Powers – Key Actors in International Politics.»The report underscored how countries like Brazil, India, South Africa, and Kazakhstan are redefining the middle power paradigm through a blend of strategic autonomy and multilateral engagement. SWP identified Kazakhstan’s balanced diplomacy, resource leverage, and regional leadership as key attributes aligning it with other emergent middle powers.
In today’s multipolar and often unstable world, middle powers are emerging as stabilizers, innovators, and norm shapers. They play pivotal roles in regional integration, conflict prevention, and cross-border cooperation. With their capacity for nuanced diplomacy and credible leadership, they are increasingly seen as the «glue»holding the international system together.
As countries like Kazakhstan begin to define themselves within this framework, the strategic importance of middle powers is only set to grow. Far from being mere spectators, they are active participants in building a more cooperative, multipolar world order.
Strategic Balancing in a Complex Neighborhood
Kazakhstan has long balanced relations with major powers, including Russia, China, the U.S., and the EU. However, under Tokayev, there has been a noticeable shift toward defining a more autonomous and forward-looking foreign policy. The country positions itself as a neutral mediator, hosting peace talks, championing nuclear disarmament, and promoting regional integration in Central Asia.
This foreign policy pragmatism is matched by a domestic push toward economic diversification and digital modernization. As Tokayev emphasized in his Al Jazeera interview, Kazakhstan’s path to carbon neutrality by 2060, its investments in IT infrastructure, and its ambition to become a knowledge-based economy are all part of a broader rebranding: from resource-dependent state to agile, diplomatic middle power.
In the evolving architecture of global politics, Kazakhstan has increasingly positioned itself as a rising middle power – a state that may not possess superpower capabilities, yet plays a significant role in stabilizing and shaping regional dynamics. As geopolitical rivalries intensify and the global system becomes more fragmented, Kazakhstan’s foreign policy behavior reflects the hallmarks of a middle power: multi-vector diplomacy, strategic autonomy, and international engagement.
Kazakhstan’s geographical position – landlocked between China and Russia, and close to volatile regions such as Afghanistan and the Middle East – has necessitated a nuanced and balanced foreign policy. Since gaining independence in 1991, the country has pursued a multi-vector foreign policy, maintaining strong relations with Russia and China while simultaneously deepening ties with the United States, the European Union, and the Muslim world.
This balancing act is not mere pragmatism; it is a defining feature of middle power diplomacy. Kazakhstan’s ability to engage across ideological divides and avoid alignment with any single geopolitical bloc allows it to act as a bridge between East and West, North and South.
Kazakhstan’s middle power aspirations are perhaps most evident in its normative diplomacy and multilateral commitments. The country has been an active participant and, at times, a leader in international organizations such as the United Nations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), and the Organization of Turkic States.
It hosted the Astana Peace Talks on Syria, where it offered neutral ground for negotiations involving the U.S., Russia, Iran, and Turkish stakeholders. Such mediation efforts align with the behavioral definition of a middle power – a state that contributes to peace and stability through diplomacy rather than force.
Kazakhstan has also championed nuclear non-proliferation, voluntarily giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal and advocating for global disarmament. The country’s capital, Astana is home to several international dialogue platforms, such as the Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has recently reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s ambition to reduce dependence on hydrocarbons and transition to a knowledge-based, green economy. As he mentioned in a 2025 interview with Al Jazeera, the country aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, while increasing investments in digital infrastructure and technological innovation.
This strategic vision is consistent with the behavior of modern middle powers that seek issue-specific leadership– whether in climate policy, digital governance, or economic reform. Kazakhstan’s investments in Astana Hub, supercomputing, and renewable energy signal a long-term ambition to become a regional innovation leader.
Kazakhstan’s evolving profile as a middle power has not gone unnoticed. A 2023 publication by Germany’s Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) – titled «Middle Powers: Key Actors in International Politics» – lists Kazakhstan among countries that play a «normative and stabilizing role» in their respective regions. The SWP emphasizes the importance of states that, like Kazakhstan, uphold multilateralism and serve as constructive partners in addressing transnational challenges.
President Tokayev has not merely embraced the middle power identity for Kazakhstan—he has used it as a framework to articulate the country's broader responsibilities in an increasingly unstable international order. In a recent address, he drew parallels between Kazakhstan and countries like Singapore, both emerging middle powers that must now navigate a world beset by complexity and risk.
«We are facing a multitude of crises», Tokayev remarked, «ranging from geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic disruptions to increasingly frequent climate disasters». He pointed to the rapid erosion of the global security architecture and the growing distrust among great powers as signs that the so-called «post-Cold War peace dividend” may be nearing its end. Tokayev emphasized that in 2023 alone, global military expenditures surged to a record $2.2 trillion—a clear signal that a new arms race is underway.
Kazakhstan's president did not limit his warnings to traditional military threats. He highlighted a broader array of destabilizing forces: extremism, terrorism, cybersecurity threats, space militarization, artificial intelligence, climate change, mass migration, and pandemics. According to him, these transnational issues demand urgent and collective attention, particularly from states that are neither global hegemons nor passive observers.
«Countries like Kazakhstan and Singapore», Tokayev stressed, «cannot afford to turn a blind eye to the growing divides in the global order. The risks are immense. Without decisive action, we could once again find ourselves on the brink of a new Cold War».
As global power dynamics tilt toward multipolarity and the old binaries of East versus West dissolve, middle powers are emerging as indispensable actors in managing complexity. These countries, often underestimated, provide diplomatic bandwidth, moral authority, and regional insight that the great powers frequently lack.
Kazakhstan, through its nuanced diplomacy, balanced geopolitical posture, and forward-looking reforms, has steadily positioned itself as one of these crucial actors. President Tokayev’s vision of Kazakhstan as a responsible, stabilizing force reflects a broader shift in global affairs—where agility, credibility, and constructive engagement matter more than sheer might.
In this century’s contest not just of power but of purpose, middle powers like Kazakhstan will shape the rules, norms, and frameworks that define tomorrow’s international system. Their strength lies not in dominance, but in their ability to connect, mediate, and lead with a quiet confidence that the world increasingly needs.
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