As the intense summer heat begins to subside, a new concern emerges in the heart of Central Asia: the escalating crisis of transboundary rivers in Kazakhstan. The nation's reliance on its neighboring countries for river water has left many regions grappling with acute water shortages, potentially leading to devastating consequences for agriculture and livelihoods.
Farmers in the southern regions, where most vegetables and fruits come from, have been facing water shortages for irrigating crops. Kazakhstan has several large river basins. Since major rivers originate from neighboring countries, Kazakhstan depends on their generosity. That's why during the heat season, rivers in the country slow down and face shortages. Although this problem has been raised at various levels, it has not yet been resolved.
Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the President of Kazakhstan, has repeatedly addressed the issue at various forums and conferences. He emphasizes the need for collaborative efforts in the Central Asian region to secure water resources for the future. Experts agree, suggesting that only through joint measures and responsible management can the looming water crisis be averted.
At a meeting held in 2021 on the development of monocities, he mentioned that the drying of rivers poses a threat. "It has been observed that transboundary rivers, especially the Syrdarya, Zhaiyk, and Ile rivers, have become shallower, and their ecological condition has worsened. This is mostly due to a decrease in the amount of water coming from neighboring countries, as water consumption in those places has increased," said K. Tokayev.
At the Astana International Forum held in the capital city this year, Mr. Tokayev pointed out the lack of water resources, especially in Central Asia where the water problem is becoming more complicated day by day. In this regard, the President noted that Central Asia is a region where water security can only be achieved through close cooperation and efficiently tailored joint measures.
"We are genuinely concerned about the scarcity of water resources. Droughts and floods in Central Asia will cause damage of 1.3 percent of GDP per annum, while crop yields are expected to decrease by 30 percent, leading to around 5 million internal climate migrants by 2050. Our glacier surface has already decreased by 30 percent. The two major rivers of our region - the Syr Darya and Amu Darya - are estimated to lose 15 percent by 2050. To prevent an environmental disaster in the region, we urge for more resources to be allocated to support the International Fund to Save the Aral Sea," said President Tokayev.
Such concerns highlight the inevitable dangers of water scarcity in Central Asia. According to experts, the demand for water will increase by 50 percent by 2040. Kazakhstan may be included in the category of "most water-stressed" countries by 2050. Agriculture accounts for 65% of the total water use, with losses reaching 60%. Another issue is the efficient use of water. For example, in Kazakhstan, 3 times more water is used to produce 1 dollar of GDP than in the USA and Russia. Compared to Australia, it is 6 times higher.
Baurzhan Auken, a senior expert at the Department of Asian Studies at the Institute of Strategic Studies of Kazakhstan, says that there are many reasons for the water shortage in Kazakhstan. Among them, the country's dependence on water resources from neighboring countries plays a major role. Additionally, global warming, the deterioration of hydrotechnical devices, and river pollution have a significant impact.
"The decrease in the water level of transboundary rivers in Central Asia during the summer is usually due to several factors. First of all, in Central Asia, summer temperatures are high, and rainfall is low. During this period, evaporation in water reservoirs increases, and the volume of water in rivers decreases. In addition, some states in the region use the rivers for hydropower and agriculture purposes. In the summer, the demand for field irrigation increases, leading to a large amount of water being diverted to agriculture. The anthropogenic factor also affects this. Problems such as obsolete irrigation equipment, unsystematic water use, non-compliance with water use rules, and river pollution," says B. Auken.
Kazakhstan boasts eight critical river water management basins, including Aral – Syrdarya, Balkash – Alakol, Irtys, Esil, Zhayik – Caspian, Nura – Sarysu, Tobyl – Torgai, and Shu – Talas. Among these, the southern regions, including Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Zhambyl, Almaty, and Zhetysu, heavily depend on transboundary rivers for irrigation and economic sustenance.
This underscores the importance of transboundary rivers since all the major rivers in these regions originate from neighboring countries. For instance, out of 7 rivers with a length of more than a thousand kilometers, only the Esil River begins in Kazakhstan. The Irtys and Ile rivers come from China, Zhayik and Tobyl rivers originate in Russia, and the Syrdarya and Shu rivers have their source in Kyrgyzstan. It should be noted that while the Syrdarya begins in the Kyrgyz Alatau, the main part of its course passes through Uzbekistan. This dependence on both countries holds true for Kazakhstan in terms of the Syr-Darya river.
The nation's dependence on its neighbors' river flow has been a longstanding issue since Kazakhstan's independence. The "Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes," adopted in 1992, was intended to provide a framework for resolving such disputes. This document was adopted on March 17, 1992, in Helsinki, Finland, and came into force in 1996. Kazakhstan ratified the convention in 2000, with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Russia among the signatories. However, China and Kyrgyzstan have remained notably absent from this agreement.
At present, there are 25 rivers that cross the border between Kazakhstan and China. The resolution of their issues will occur through bilateral negotiations. For instance, in 2001, the governments of the two countries signed an agreement on the use of transboundary rivers. Nevertheless, the matter of the Irtys and Ile rivers has not yet been fully resolved, a concerning situation. Several factors contribute to this. Firstly, the main parts of both rivers flow through China's territory. Consequently, the flow of the Irtys and Ile rivers is directly influenced by Beijing's decisions. Secondly, China has devoted considerable attention to developing the Xinjiang-Uyghur Autonomous Region and has constructed numerous water reservoirs along the rivers. Experts estimate that China uses nearly 40 percent of the water from these two rivers.
The situation with the Ile River is particularly challenging. Around 30 percent of the river's water comes from glaciers in Kazakhstan. While one of the two main tributaries of the Ile River originates from the slope of Tekes Alatau, only 40 kilometers of Tekes River flow through Kazakhstan's territory, with the remaining 60 kilometers forming the border. The remaining 338 kilometers lie entirely within China's borders. Consequently, the Tekes River, originating from Teriskei Alatau, contributes to the Ile only after entering the neighboring country. In recent years, China has constructed 13 water reservoirs and installed 59 hydropower plants along the Ile River. Experts warn that if this trend of extensive water use continues, Lake Balkhash might experience a fate similar to that of the Aral Sea.
In the early 1980s, China amplified its water consumption from the Irtysh River, but the stark differences in Moscow's and Beijing's approaches prevented a bilateral agreement. Out of thirty-two major Chinese cities, thirty face water scarcity, with more than half enduring a continuous water deficit.
In 1990, China initiated Project 635, involving a 300-kilometer, 22-meter-wide canal connecting the Black Irtysh and Karamay rivers. The aim was to redirect water from the upper Irtysh to Ulungur Lake. Presently, China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region diverts 10 to 40% of the Irtysh's runoff to support agriculture and industry. This water has increased irrigated farmland by around 140,000 hectares and fuels industrial activities in the Karamay oil basin.
China's 1993 strategic development plan for its western regions starkly highlighted the conflict between resource scarcity and leadership ambitions. Currently, China extracts approximately 500 million cubic meters of water annually. By 2020, when Project 635 completes, this figure could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters, potentially negatively impacting Kazakhstan's economy and the Russian regions along the Ob River, with the Irtysh as its primary tributary.
China also utilizes Ili basin rivers to irrigate 400,000 hectares of land, with plans to expand irrigation to 600,000 hectares. Xinjiang has built the Kapchagay Reservoir upstream from where the Tekes River meets the Ili. The reservoir, with a capacity of 1.2 billion cubic meters, is nearly full. While China claims the reservoir benefits agriculture, power generation, and flood protection for Kazakhstan, it controls all water reaching Kazakhstan from the Ili.
China's current discussions include a proposed 174-meter-high dam on the Kunges River with a flow volume of 6 billion cubic meters. The drainage channel project from the Ili to the Tarim River in southern Xinjiang poses a potential challenge. Construction of an Ili River drainage channel is ongoing, starting at Kensai in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, crossing the Boro-Khoro pass to reach Jing near Boro-tala city in the Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. This project encompasses a substantial dam and a three-stage hydropower station. The aim is to channel the waters of Ili tributaries—Tekes, Kunges, and Kash rivers—to replenish the drying Ebi Lake in the Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. Soon, up to 70% of the Ili's water flow could be diverted.
By 2050, China aims to expand the area of irrigated land in the Xinjiang Uyghur region to 600,000 hectares. Reports suggest that the construction of a channel to divert water from the Ile River to the western part of the Tarim desert basin is underway. If Beijing persists in utilizing the river's water without considering downstream impacts, the supply of water from the Ile to Kazakhstan could decline by 40 percent by 2050. Considering that China's water consumption is unlikely to decrease or increase, the situation concerning the Irtys and Ile rivers is poised to worsen. Such circumstances would create difficulties in cities that depend on these two rivers.
The situation of rivers originating from Kyrgyzstan, which has not ratified the "Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes," is also complex. In January 2000, the Agreement concerning the Utilization of Water Management Facilities with Intergovernmental Status on the Rivers Chu and Talas was signed between the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. The signatory Parties reached a consensus that the expenses related to the operation and maintenance of the designated facilities outlined in the Agreement would be distributed proportionally, based on the amount of water received by each Party. In accordance with Article 5 of the Agreement, both Parties committed to establishing a permanent commission responsible for determining the operational procedures of water infrastructure and allocating the respective financial burdens for operation and maintenance costs. This Agreement officially came into effect in February 2002, following its ratification by the respective Parliaments of both nations.
Presently, the Zhambyl region is supplied with water from the Talas and Shu rivers in the neighboring country. However, during the summer, the volume of water in these rivers diminishes. Particularly during the hot season, the bed of the Talas River, which passes through Taraz, becomes nearly visible. The construction of the Kirov Reservoir has worsened the river's condition. Several water dams have been erected along the Talas, but they are insufficient to store a significant amount of water released from the "Kirov" during periods of heavy rainfall. As a reminder, in 2016, the Talas channel overflowed and destroyed the Sozak bridge. This event highlighted the situation where abundant winter water flow was not effectively managed and instead caused flooding in villages situated along the riverbanks.
In the subsequent years, an initiative was undertaken to construct the "Akmola" reservoir along the Talas river. The Ministry of Ecology, Geology, and Natural Resources stated that three water reservoirs would be built in Zhambyl at a total cost of 14.9 billion tenge in 2021. However, this promise has yet to be fulfilled. Last year, Prime Minister Alikhan Smaylov assured Senate deputies that three water reservoirs would be built in Zhambyl. Regrettably, the commitment made last year remains unfulfilled.
Unfortunately, due to the lack of water, ordinary farmers are suffering. For instance, Murat Abiev, a resident of Bostandyk village in the Talas district, states that all his crops are on the brink of withering due to the heat.
"The water in this canal that flows from Talas is inadequate for irrigating multiple fields simultaneously. Desperately, we have to queue up to obtain water. The supply is insufficient. Those with connections in the local administration divert water. When we contact the local and central authorities, they respond, 'The water level is low, and we cannot increase it. If the ministry does not decide to augment the water supply of Talas, there's nothing we can do.' During the summer, there isn't enough water for the fields. This year, I planted corn on a small plot. Now, as it's grown and needs watering, we're facing trouble. All my alfalfa has withered. The beets I planted on sixty hectares were completely scorched due to water shortage. Farmers with 30-40 hectares of corn fields are still waiting. If the Akmola water reservoir were built, the situation would improve," says M. Abiev.
The situation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers is well-known. Inefficient water use from these rivers contributed to the Aral Sea tragedy. In 1998, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed an agreement on the use of the Syrdarya River, later joined by Tajikistan. However, this agreement did not fully address the issue of transboundary waters in Central Asia, as the parties failed to meet their specified obligations.
Due to Uzbekistan's intensive use of Syrdarya water for cotton cultivation, the lower reaches of the river often dry up and become swamps. Consequently, peasants and farmers in the Turkestan region suffer. Some years, during the winter, Kyrgyzstan released half of the water collected in the "Toktogul" reservoir, resulting in several villages located downstream being washed away. Later, the "Koksaray" water reservoir was constructed, seemingly alleviating this problem. Nonetheless, the southern region remains dependent on the "generosity" of neighboring countries.
The drying of the Zhayik river has also been a recurring topic of discussion. Last year, the Head of State, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, addressed this issue during his speech at the VI Caspian Summit held in Ashgabat. "We are obligated to take coordinated and effective measures to save the river. Otherwise, there will soon be nothing left to save. We invite all parties to unite their efforts and develop a joint action plan to improve the condition of the Zhayik River," said the President.
According to experts, the decreasing flow of the Zhayik river will also impact the Caspian Sea. In recent years, the world's largest lake has been shrinking in size. Information from the national company "Kazakhstan Cosmos Travel" reveals that the water area of the Kazakhstani sector of the Caspian Sea has decreased by 7.1 percent over the last 15 years. The water level of the Zhayik River has experienced a decline on three separate occasions within the past 15 years. Just two years ago, the river encountered an unprecedented shallowness. On August 23, 2019, inhabitants of various districts in Ural woke up to find their drinking water supply entirely cut off. The city depends on 60 percent of its water from the river and 40 percent from surface water intake. While climate change plays a role in the Zhayik River's diminishing flow, it is not the sole factor. The Iriklinskoye reservoir collects water from the upper regions of the Zhayik River but inadequately releases it downstream. Presently, the river basin is home to 12 substantial water reservoirs, including Iriklinskoe, each holding a volume of at least 10 million cubic metric units of water. Given that the Zhayik is a transboundary river, cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia is essential to address this issue.
Kazakhstan's challenges highlight the intricate balance between water management, regional cooperation, and the global impact of water resource use. As the nation grapples with the complexities of transboundary rivers, urgent action is needed to safeguard the vital lifelines that sustain both livelihoods and ecosystems.