As part of the implementation of the instructions of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, delivered on 28 January 2025 at an expanded meeting of the Government, comprehensive efforts are underway to ensure the systemic development of the electric power sector and transition to a new level of infrastructure reliability, El.kz cites primeminister.kz.

Government measures, implemented through the Ministry of Energy, are focused on increasing installed capacity, launching large-scale modernization and new generation projects, and establishing a sustainable investment mechanism aimed at enhancing reliability and national energy security.

According to the Ministry of Energy, by the end of the first quarter of 2027 Kazakhstan will fully meet its domestic electricity demand, and by 2029 will achieve a stable surplus.

Current Structure of the Power System

Taking into account newly commissioned facilities, Kazakhstan’s power system currently includes 241 energy sources, of which 162 belong to renewable energy sources.

According to Minister of Energy Erlan Akkenzhenov, projects already under implementation will ensure electricity supply for the needs of the economy in the medium term.

“The Ministry is already implementing a number of major projects that will allow the economy’s electricity demand to be fully covered by 2027, with a confident surplus expected by 2029. At the President’s instruction, a project for the development of coal-based generation is currently being developed, with a focus on clean coal technologies. Plans include the construction of a new power station in Kurchatov and GRES-3 in Ekibastuz. At the same time, existing infrastructure is being brought into proper condition. In 2026 alone, more than 2.6 thousand MW of new capacity is expected to be commissioned. All efforts are aimed at one goal — ensuring the reliability, efficiency and sustainability of the national power system,” Minister of Energy Erlan Akkenzhenov said.

By the end of 2025, total installed capacity reached 26.7 GW, increasing by 1.4 GW compared to the previous year. The main share of generation continues to come from traditional energy sources.

Installed capacity structure:

• coal-fired power plants — 13.8 GW

• gas-fired power plants — 6.8 GW

• large hydropower plants — 2.5 GW

• renewable energy sources — 3.6 GW

This balance ensures system stability while enabling gradual diversification of the energy mix.

Development Plan Until 2035: Over 26 GW of New Generation

Active implementation continues under the Energy Sector Development Plan through 2035, which provides for the commissioning of more than 26 GW of new generating capacity.

Capacity growth will be achieved through:

• 5 GW — modernization and expansion of existing power plants

• 10.5 GW — construction of new conventional generation facilities

• 8.4 GW — renewable energy projects

• 2.4 GW — nuclear power plant

This balanced approach allows Kazakhstan to meet the President’s objective of ensuring reliable energy supply amid accelerated economic growth.

Flexible Generation as a Key Priority

One of the core development priorities is the expansion of flexible generation. Approximately 31.4% of new capacity will be dedicated to load regulation and system flexibility, including:

• hydropower plants — 1.17 GW

• combined-cycle gas turbines — 5.6 GW

• Ekibastuz GRES-3, where 1.5 GW of its total 2.64 GW capacity will perform balancing functions

Projects nearing completion include combined-cycle gas plants in:

• Kyzylorda Region — 240 MW

• Turkistan Region — 1,000 MW

In addition, projects to convert Almaty CHP-2 and CHP-3 to gas with a total capacity of 1,101 MW are underway. Over the next three years, commissioning will primarily focus on covering the deficit of regulating capacity.

Renewable Energy and Energy Storage Systems

Renewable energy development is accompanied by the deployment of energy storage systems.

Large renewable projects include storage facilities with a total capacity exceeding 3 GWh, enabling surplus electricity generated during low-demand hours to be stored and used during peak periods, thereby strengthening the stability of the Unified Power System.

Investments: From Planning to Implementation

Currently, 81 projects with a combined capacity of 15.3 GW are at the active implementation stage, with total investments amounting to 13.1 trillion tenge, including:

• 30 conventional generation projects — 10.2 GW

• 51 renewable energy projects — 5.1 GW

In 2024, the Ministry of Energy signed 14 investment agreements with power producers totaling around 2 GW, followed by two additional agreements in 2025 totaling 775.9 MW. This marked the relaunch of the investment cycle and restoration of the sector’s economic attractiveness.

Auction Mechanisms and New CCGT Projects

Under auction mechanisms for selecting flexible generation, four combined-cycle gas turbine projects with a total capacity of approximately 1.8 GW are being implemented in Turkistan Region, Kyzylorda Region, Ulytau Region and the city of Almaty.

In August 2024, auctions also identified combined-cycle gas projects in Zhambyl, Aktobe and Atyrau regions with a combined capacity of 700 MW, scheduled for completion by 2028. In December 2025, an auction was held for a 500 MW CCGT plant in Astana.

In addition, one of the most important environmental projects — the conversion of Almaty CHP-2 and CHP-3 to gas — will be completed this year.

Coal Generation and Strategic Decisions

At the President’s instruction, a separate project for the development of coal-based generation using clean coal technologies is being developed. The plan includes projects totaling 7.6 GW.

Confirmed reserves of energy coal amount to 33.6 billion tons, allowing coal generation to remain a long-term element of the national energy balance.

At the end of 2025 and beginning of the current year, a series of tenders marked a historic milestone for the sector:

• the winner was selected for construction of Ekibastuz GRES-3 (2,640 MW), with commissioning planned for 2029–2032

• a contract was signed for construction of a 700 MW coal-fired plant in Kurchatov

• CHP projects in Kokshetau, Semey and Ust-Kamenogorsk are underway

In 2026, major overhauls are planned for 9 power units, 55 boilers and 51 turbines, reducing average wear of CHP plants nationwide from 61% to 59%.

Phased Capacity Commissioning and Transition to Surplus

New capacity commissioning:

• 2024 — 771 MW

• 2025 — 669 MW

• 2026 — approximately 2.6 GW

• 2027 — around 1 GW

According to the Ministry of Energy, this will allow Kazakhstan to fully meet electricity demand by the end of the first quarter of 2027.

In 2028, 3.9 GW is expected to be commissioned, followed by approximately 5.7 GW in 2029. This will ensure a surplus not only of electricity, but also of regulating capacity, creating conditions for expanding export potential.

Economics of Reform and the Energy Backbone

A key driver of sector development is the updated “Tariff in Exchange for Investment” program, under which the annual investment recovery limit increased from 32 billion tenge to 428 billion tenge. To date, 25 investment agreements have been concluded.

It is important to note that since the launch of this program, private companies have not paid dividends — all funds have been reinvested in reconstruction and modernization of power plant equipment.

To ensure reliable operation of Kazakhstan’s National Power Grid, work continues to strengthen the country’s energy backbone.

Strategic grid projects include:

• reinforcement of power networks in the southern zone

• integration of the West Kazakhstan power system with the Unified National Power System, with completion scheduled for the second half of 2027

One of the most promising initiatives is the Green Energy Corridor across the Caspian Sea, signed by the Heads of State of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan during COP-29 in Baku. A joint venture involving all three system operators has already been established, and work is ongoing.