13.11.2025
11:37
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IMF predicts Kazakhstan’s GDP growth to 5% in 2026

IMF predicts Kazakhstan’s GDP growth to 5% in 2026

2025 has become a turning point for the national economy - the country confidently entered a phase of sustainable growth,El.kz reports.

Kazakhstan is demonstrating impressive GDP growth, lowering inflation, and attracting record volumes of investment.

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in the first nine months of 2025, GDP grew by 4.8%, significantly higher than the previous year. The main contributors were industry, construction, transport, the IT sector, and agriculture. The services sector also continues to show positive dynamics — particularly in education, healthcare, and e-commerce.

Experts note that one of the key factors of stabilization was the reduction of inflation to 6.3%, compared to 10.8% a year earlier. At the same time, the tenge exchange rate remains stable, and unemployment is among the lowest in Central Asia at 4.7%.

The government is actively focusing on diversifying the economy: the share of the non-resource sector already exceeds 60% of GDP. Kazakhstan is prioritizing technological clusters, domestic raw material processing, and the development of finished goods exports.

Investment and industrial policy

Kazakhstan is becoming one of the most attractive destinations for investment in Central Asia. According to the Ministry of National Economy, in 2025 the total volume of foreign direct investment exceeded $30 billion — a 12% increase over the previous year.

Kazakhstan’s main partners include China, the United States, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union. Most of the investments are now directed not into the resource sector, but into mechanical engineering, transport logistics, pharmaceuticals, IT, and renewable energy.

An example of industrial cooperation is Kazakhstan’s partnership with John Deere, which launched agricultural machinery production in Kostanay in 2025. In just a few months, over 290 units have been assembled, with about a hundred more planned by year-end. Similar projects are being implemented by Hyundai Trans Kazakhstan, Astana Motors, and several domestic enterprises.

Tax and administrative reforms have played a major role in attracting capital. The government has simplified the licensing process, introduced a “one-stop shop” system for investors, and expanded state support measures. Through institutions such as Kazakh Invest and Baiterek, businesses gain access to preferential loans and infrastructure.

According to experts, Kazakhstan is gradually transforming into an industrial and innovation hub in the region, capable of competing in investment climate quality with leading Asian economies.

Reforms and government programs

Over the past two years, the government has implemented systemic reforms: modernization of the tax code, digitalization of public services, reduction of bureaucracy.

Major results have been achieved through programs such as the National Entrepreneurship Development Project, Business Roadmap, and Auyl Amanaty. These initiatives have expanded access for SMEs to financing, subsidies, and grants, while opening new opportunities for women and young entrepreneurs in rural areas. According to the Ministry of Labor, over 180,000 new jobs were created in 2025 thanks to these programs.

The digital reform of public administration has enhanced transparency in public procurement, reduced corruption risks, and accelerated communication between the state and businesses. Economists note that, for the first time in years, Kazakhstan has shown an increase in labor productivity in key sectors, including industry and agriculture.

Thus, reforms have moved beyond declarations - they have become a tool for real growth and business stimulus.

Energy and green economy

Kazakhstan is confidently moving toward becoming a regional leader in green energy and sustainable development. In 2025, dozens of renewable energy projects were launched, and the share of “green” generation in the national energy balance reached 15%, three percentage points higher than the previous year.

Wind power plants in the Zhambyl and Akmola regions, solar parks in Kyzylorda and Turkistan, and small hydropower stations in the south of the country have formed the foundation of the new energy strategy. Special attention is paid to energy efficiency and reducing the carbon footprint - industries are introducing closed-loop technologies and smart grid systems.

Kazakhstan is actively cooperating with international partners. In 2025, with the support of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Asian Development Bank, major green projects were launched to modernize thermal power plants and implement carbon capture systems.

At the same time, ESG standards for businesses are being developed, enhancing Kazakhstan’s attractiveness to sustainability-focused investors. The government incentivizes companies adopting eco-friendly technologies through tax benefits and “green” bonds.

According to the Ministry of Energy, the transition to a carbon-neutral economy is not just a global trend but a strategic necessity. Kazakhstan has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and 2025 became the year when this process took on practical form.

Digital Transformation and Innovation

The digital economy has become one of Kazakhstan’s main growth engines in 2025. The government is actively implementing artificial intelligence, automation, and big data technologies, making digitalization the foundation of national competitiveness.

The “Digital Kazakhstan 2.0” project, launched this year, covers all key sectors -

from public services and industry to education and healthcare. Over 90% of government serviceshave already been moved online, and digital platforms like eGov and Smart Data Ukimet enable citizens and businesses to interact with the government without bureaucratic delays.

The IT sector is booming. World-class technology hubs and data centers are emerging in Astana and Almaty, hosting startups specializing in fintech, GovTech, EdTech, and cybersecurity. The Astana Hub International Technopark of IT Startups now counts over 1,500 resident companies from Europe and Asia.

The government also invests in human capital development: universities are introducing next-generation IT programs, and schoolchildren learn programming from primary grades. According to the Ministry of Digital Development, Kazakhstan’s IT export volume exceeded $500 million in 2025, up 40% year-on-year.

Experts emphasize that digital transformation is not just a technological trend but a new philosophy of governance and business, making the economy more flexible, transparent, and crisis-resistant.

Human Capital and Social Development

Economic growth is impossible without improved quality of life -

and in 2025, Kazakhstan is placing people at the center of its policy. Rising incomes, better education and healthcare, employment support, and social justice have become key state priorities.

According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, the average wage in the country grew by 14% compared to 2024, while the minimum wage reached 100,000 tenge. The government is also curbing price increases on basic goods and expanding targeted assistance to low-income families.

A key initiative is the National Human Capital Development Project, which provides workforce retraining, develops dual education, and introduces new professional qualification standards. Over 200,000 citizens have completed upskilling and reskilling programs relevant to the modern labor market.

The education system is actively expanding digital infrastructure in schools and colleges, increasing the share of STEM disciplines and engineering programs. Universities are adopting international standards and launching joint programs with leading European and Asian institutions.

In healthcare, reforms continue in primary medical care and digitalization of patient data, improving access and quality of services.

Together, these efforts are forming the foundation for a new knowledge-based economy, where human potential becomes the key resource for growth. Kazakhstan is betting not only on technology but also on an educated, healthy, and motivated population.

Outlook and Development Prospects

Kazakhstan’s economic upturn in 2025 is not a one-time leap but a sustained trend confirmed by international experts. According to the IMF, GDP growth in 2026 could reach around 5%, while the World Bank notes that the country is “confidently moving toward a diversified, innovative, and inclusive economy.”

The main drivers of future growth include industrialization, digitalization, and green transformation, along with expanding the domestic market through increased consumer purchasing power. Kazakhstan continues to maintain a balance between openness and internal stability: exports are growing, foreign exchange reserves exceed $35 billion, and the banking sector is strengthening.

Experts predict that in the coming years, intelligent technologies, logistics corridors, and the energy transition will play a special role. In particular, development of the Trans-Caspian route and the transport hub in Astana may turn Kazakhstan into a key link in Eurasian trade.

Challenges remain - global inflation, climate risks, and geopolitical instability — but the resilience of the domestic market and prudent government policies help the country minimize external shocks.

Kazakhstan is gradually becoming a center of economic gravity in Central Asia, where energy, technology, human capital, and sustainability converge. And 2025 marks only the beginning of a new cycle of growth, with the country confidently setting the pace for the entire region.