Global cervical cancer cases, deaths forecast to rise by 2050: study

Global cervical cancer cases and deaths are forecast to increase by 20.2 percent and 39.3 percent, respectively, by 2050, despite the condition being largely preventable, new research has found, El.kz cites Xinhua.

Australian and international researchers analyzed cervical cancer incidence, deaths, and health loss across 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023 and modelled trends to 2050, according to a summary of the study on the Australian Science Media Center website on Tuesday.

An estimated 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths occurred worldwide in 2023. By 2050, annual cases are forecast to rise 20.2 percent from 2024 levels to 1.08 million, while deaths are forecast to rise 39.3 percent to 522,000, according to the modelling study published in Nature Medicine.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to face the largest increases, with cases projected to rise by 88.7 percent and deaths by 95.4 percent, reaching an estimated 206,000 deaths in 2050, the findings showed.

The study found that none of the seven global regions assessed is forecast to meet the World Health Organization's cervical cancer elimination threshold of fewer than four cases per 100,000 women by 2050 if current trends continue.

The authors called for greater access to human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, screening and treatment. However, access to these measures varies widely around the world.

In 2023, the age-standardized incidence rate of cervical cancer was more than four times higher in low-income countries than in high-income countries, while the mortality rate was more than seven times higher, according to the study.