Experts assess public engagement ahead of Kurultai elections

In Almaty, experts discussed the readiness of Kazakhstan’s citizens to participate in the elections to the Kurultai, the role of televised debates, political parties’ activities at the regional level, and the use of AI in election campaigning, El.kz reports citing the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS).

The discussion, held as part of the “Saylau-2026: The Nature of the Political Campaign” platform, brought together political scientists, public figures, and electoral process specialists. Experts from Kazakhstan’s regions also joined the discussion online.

Political scientist Bakytzhan Bukhurbay said that opinion polling conducted over a period of one and a half months indicates a high level of citizens’ readiness to vote. Between 70.3% and 75.6% of respondents said they intended to visit polling stations.

A total of 89.4% of respondents said they were aware, to varying degrees, of the upcoming elections.

“7 out of 10 voters indicate that they are prepared to participate in the vote. At the same time, almost 9 out of 10 Kazakhstanis are aware of the upcoming elections. This indicates a fairly high level of citizen engagement in the current electoral campaign,” Bukhurbay noted.

Televised party debates attracted a significant audience. The broadcast on the Qazaqstan TV channel was watched by approximately 560,000 people, while the debate aired on Channel 7 attracted 1.45 mln viewers.

Qazaqstan TV attracted younger viewers, while the debates on the other platform were more frequently watched by older audiences. Discussions of the broadcasts continued on social media, where users compared the positions of political parties and assessed the performances of their representatives.

“Televised debates are capable of reaching very diverse groups of voters. Political discussion continues online and across social media, where audiences comment on the candidates’ performances, assess parties’ arguments, and become direct participants in the public debate,” the political scientist said.

Director of the Institute of Philosophy, Political Science and Religious Studies Aigul Sadvokassova highlighted the decline in the share of undecided voters. It stood at 22.6% in the first survey and fell to 5.3% in the most recent study.

According to the expert, this trend has been influenced by the intensification of election campaigning and increased public attention to political parties. At the same time, she stressed that polling results should be regarded as an indicator of public sentiment, as stated intentions do not always translate into actual voter turnout.

“There are grounds to expect that voter turnout may exceed the level recorded during the 2023 parliamentary elections. At the same time, the final outcome will depend on the extent to which voters’ interest and engagement are maintained through Election Day,” Sadvokassova said.

Experts also emphasized the importance of political parties’ grassroots and regional activities. Head of the Centre for Education Sciences and Public Development at the National Academy of Sciences

Zhenisbek Tolen noted that voters’ attitudes towards a political force are influenced by the reputation of candidates and the level of activity of regional party branches.

“A region is not a single electorate. It is made up of diverse social groups, and a party’s electoral success depends on how effectively its local team can communicate with each of them in clear and accessible language,” Tolen said.

Another notable feature of the campaign has been the use of generative artificial intelligence. According to public figure Erlan Smailov, AI tools are being used to prepare texts, speeches, images, audio materials, and video content.

These technologies accelerate the production of campaign materials while simultaneously making it easier to create deepfakes and disseminate disinformation. Determining accountability for such publications also remains a challenge.

“AI is becoming part of political competition. Alongside new opportunities, it creates challenges related to disinformation, deepfakes, and public trust in political content,” Smailov emphasized.

The elections of deputies to the Kurultai will be held on 23 August. Experts believe that the final level of voter engagement will depend on political parties’ ability to maintain voters’ attention, present their programmes convincingly, and establish effective operations at the regional level.